HOUSTON — The Houston Astros didn’t have the prospect capital to take advantage of an already tight starting pitching market. The fact that they went anyway shows how much they sensed the situation was getting worse. Panic may be too strong a word, but the number of prospects Houston gave up some 24 hours before the trade deadline seems enough.
“There were some really good pitchers coming off the board,” general manager Dana Brown said after a day that saw only two other starting pitchers moved. “At the end of the day, you don’t want to be left doing nothing to help a major league team get back to the playoffs.”
Maybe Yusei Kikuchi is the author of an average-to-impressive rise in his two months as an Astro and is softening the blow of what many in the industry perceive as an overpay. Forecasting prospects is an inexact science, so assuming Jake Bloss, Joey Loperfido or Will Wagner will develop into big-league players is dangerous.
No deal should be judged in the days after it is made. It’s crucial to let the careers of Bloss, Loperfido and Wagner play out. It’s also crucial to see if Kikuchi can provide the stabilization that Houston’s injury-ravaged starting rotation desperately needs.
A win can fix everything. Monday night’s mass hysteria, sparked by an angry fan base, will be forgotten if Kikuchi is a key cog in the cog’s path to an eighth straight American League Championship Series appearance or a third World Series title.
The pressure on Kikuchi to do so seems immense. He has only two months in Houston. All three prospects who were traded for him have at least six years of experience with the Toronto Blue Jays. The AthleticKeith Law ranked them all among the top 12 in an even thinner farm system at each trade deadline.
Last July, Brown and owner Jim Crane prioritized parades over prospects by parting ways with Ryan Clifford and Drew Gilbert to reacquire Justin Verlander. Monday’s deal reaffirms that stance, but it landed someone with a 6.87 ERA over his last 12 starts. Selling that to a fan base is tough, whether the Astros want to acknowledge it or not.
After tonight’s game @astros General manager Dana Brown and manager Joe Espada discussed the trade for left-handed pitcher Yusei Kikuchi.#Tirelessly pic.twitter.com/PTNasA3YTG
— Space City Home Network (@SpaceCityHN) July 30, 2024
“The market is like that right now,” Brown said. “A lot of these guys are priced high. To get a major league starter with that type of arm, you’re going to have to part with some really good players who are struggling. It’s pretty tough to part with young talent, but at the end of the day, we’re trying to really stabilize our rotation so we can get back to the playoffs and potentially go deep.”
No name like Verlander existed in this tight starting pitching market, but Houston never needed an ace. Hunter Brown pitches like an ace, Framber Valdez once was, and Verlander brings Hall of Fame pedigree when healthy. The fact that Ronel Blanco became a workhorse during a breakout season only stabilized the top of the Astros’ rotation.
Nothing is settled after them. Six starters are on the injured list and three have already had season-ending surgery. Two rookies injured at the major league level is unacceptable for a club that must play its final 56 games with urgency unlike any other period in Houston’s seven-year golden era. The Astros woke up to this predicament Monday, planning to start Bloss, a rookie they quickly drafted to the major leagues, against Pittsburgh Pirates phenom Paul Skenes.
Finding someone with more experience seemed mandatory, if only to give Blanco and Hunter Brown some breathing room while waiting for Verlander to return from the injured list. The Astros took stock of Chicago Cubs starter Jameson Taillon, who has two years of team control remaining and would have filled a vacancy in the 2025 rotation. Asked if the team had considered not trading players, Dana Brown said, “The price of controllable starters is higher. You’re looking at potentially giving up even more of your farm system.”
Multiple league sources said Houston was interested in the Detroit Tigers’ Jack Flaherty, another rental player with much better numbers than Kikuchi but a reluctant backfielder and a massive demand from Tigers president of baseball operations Scott Harris.
Assuming Harris trades Flaherty, seeing what Detroit gets for him could help form a clearer view of what Houston gave up for Kikuchi — and where the prices are for starting pitchers in this seller’s market.
Whether the Astros raised their offer price for Kikuchi is a legitimate question. Whether they should have waited until the deadline in hopes the price would drop is another question.
Jake Bloss is ranked No. 2 in the Astros’ farm system.
He has a grade 60 fastball and a true four-pitch mix 🔥
Full scouting report: https://t.co/PSowAEBOw9 pic.twitter.com/GSkBxor6zo
— Baseball America (@BaseballAmerica) July 30, 2024
“The further you go, the higher the price can go,” Dana Brown said. “We felt it was expensive because we really liked Loperfido, Bloss and Wagner. We felt it was the way to go to get a power arm in your rotation that can pitch in the playoffs.”
Dana Brown was already at a disadvantage in this market. Nearly all other buyers were looking for starting pitchers and had much more potential capital to build attractive packages. Brown described Kikuchi as a top target for the team’s board. Talks with Toronto had lasted “certainly more than 10 days,” Brown said, raising questions about the magnitude of the initial demands.
The acquisition of Kikuchi is perfectly understandable. He’s a useful major-league starter, even if some counting stats suggest otherwise. Encouraging peripheral performances help explain some of his struggles. Perhaps the shock of joining a contending club can also cure some of his ills. The AthleticEno Sarris suggested that Kikuchi still had “either the best or second-best piece among the starting pitchers traded at the deadline.”
Still, Kikuchi’s ERA jumped from 2.64 on May 21 to 4.75 on Monday, the day Houston agreed to acquire him. Over the last 57 2/3 innings, opponents have hit .305 against him with an .870 OPS. A 4.68 FIP over that span suggests a regression to the mean is looming, something Houston must hope will manifest itself in his two months with the club.
“His game has always been really good,” manager Joe Espada said. “What I’m excited about is getting him on our pitching staff and making some adjustments to his pitching, making him a little more effective, but the game is really good.”
The fact that Kikuchi still has 10.1 strikeouts per nine innings and has the lowest walk rate of his career reinforces the nastiness of his game. Now Houston’s vaunted pitching development and analytics infrastructure must find a way for him to take advantage of that.
Kikuchi’s mere presence will give Blanco and Hunter Brown some extra rest while protecting the development of rookie Spencer Arrighetti, who was thrust into a major league rotation before he was ready.
At full strength, Kikuchi is Houston’s fifth starter behind Blanco, Brown, Valdez and Verlander. There is a world in which Kikuchi doesn’t even start a playoff game, assuming Houston makes the playoffs.
Only Kikuchi’s performance can change the game. The pressure is now on him to pitch well and outperform one of those four starters. Whether that will be enough to justify the enormous cost of getting him remains to be seen.
“We felt like if we got a player at this trade deadline, even if it’s a rental, we could potentially replenish some of what we’re giving up through this year’s draft or next year’s,” said Dana Brown, who has made a career as a draft guru.
“We weren’t really going to get into discussions where we were giving up too much. We felt like we had given up enough to get what we wanted, but we didn’t want to go any further and give up more prime prospects.”
(Photo: Kevin Sousa / USA Today)