Illustration by Laemeur
Minutes after the actors’ strike ended on November 9, Ryan Reynolds planned to return to London and the set of Deadpool and Wolverine, one of several films closed in mid-July when the walkout began. He and director Shawn Levy were determined to meet the July 26 release date, which they were able to accomplish. For the other pillars, it was too late and they would finally decamp until 2025.
A studio executive says the impact of the writers’ walkout, which lasted five months until a deal was reached on September 27, also played a major role. “Think of it this way: If the actors’ strike closed the oil refinery, then the writers’ strike closed the oil fields. »
Toward the end of the SAG-AFTRA talks, studio chiefs were accused of deception in claiming their 2024 release schedules were in jeopardy with every day the four-month strike extended. The impact of these warnings is now being felt. Without the usual parade of tent poles, including a Marvel superhero picture to kick off the first weekend in May, the early summer box office is in tatters after a winter and a difficult spring. Year-to-date domestic box office revenue is $2.68 billion, down 24% from the same corridor last year and 42% from 2019, the last normal year before the COVID-19 crisis, according to Comscore. In fact, every week has been down this year compared to 2023; the smallest gap was 11 percent, when Dune: part two And Godzilla vs. Kong: The New Empire open.
This deficit has reignited the dizzying debate on the future of cinema and its ability to survive the post-pandemic world and the rise of streaming. Box office observers agree that the ecosystem is incredibly fragile, but hope that cinema attendance will pick up in the coming weeks when mainstream tents Inside Out 2, Despicable Me 4 And Deadpool and Wolverine go out, followed by Beetle juice Beetle juice early September. But there won’t be a stable production volume until 2025. It also doesn’t help that many films are opening beyond expectations (all eyes will be on BAd Boys: Ride or Die this weekend to see if it can gross between $48 million and $50 million when it launches). “We’re worried,” says a studio insider. “You’d be a fool not to think about it.” People aren’t used to going to the movies and are firmly entrenched in date viewing, which is a huge problem. But there was no real trigger.”
Movies like The guy who falls just in time or Memorial Day Angry were never intended to be mass-market summer tentpoles that could generate huge revenues, but people expected them to be just because of when they were dating. THE Monkeys franchise, who saw Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes released in May, never reached the level of a full-fledged tentpole since it’s sci-fi and aimed at older and younger men. With the exception of a single installment, all of the films grossed less than $500 million worldwide. (This does not mean the new Planet of the Apes is a disappointment. It’s the best grosser of the summer so far with $339 million in worldwide ticket sales, including $141.2 million at the domestic box office, where it’s on pace to surpass the latest installment.)
Before the strikes, the 2024 calendar looked very different. Deadpool and Wolverine was supposed to open its doors the first weekend in May, as per tradition, but had to move due to the actors’ strike. Scapegoat The opening was scheduled for early March, undoubtedly a much more lenient date, but it was delayed until the first weekend in May.
The long list of films scheduled for release this summer included Paramount’s upcoming film Impossible mission film, Sony is untitled The Karate KidDisney Mufasa: The Lion King and Marvel Love at first sight.
The winter calendar has also been impacted; to know, Avatar 3 will no longer be released on December 20. In some cases, it is impossible to say that these films moved solely because of the strikes (the Avatar films are known to be moving). Other films planned for 2024 and destined for 2025 include Blade (which had already moved from 2023), Captain America: Brave New World And snow White.
A seasoned financier says cinema attendance will rebound when the calendar returns to normal. “The theater business isn’t going anywhere: it’s a multi-billion dollar industry. The blockbusters will arrive. Inside Out 2 can be huge,” this person predicts. “We will not return to usual, usual release patterns until 2025.”
But with every movie that disappoints and underperforms, be it Angry Or The guy who falls just in time, studio insiders are growing increasingly alarmed. “It’s astonishing that Angry didn’t make $50 million domestically,” says another studio executive. “I worry that studios will slow down and make fewer films, which will further contribute to the problem.”
The weekend of May 31-June 2 is a terrifying snapshot of what can happen when there aren’t a series of tent poles waiting to unfurl during the summer. With no new major studio releases, revenue fell 69% over the same weekend in 2023 when Sony’s Spider-Man: Through the Spider-Verse opened to $120.7 million. Holdovers also did great business this weekend: Disney’s The little Mermaid earned $41.4 million, followed by 20th Century The bogeyman with $12.4 million, Marvel’s Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3 with 10 million dollars and Universal Fast with 9.6 million dollars.
Fast forward to the same weekend this year, when Sony The Garfield Movie topped the domestic chart with $14 million in its second weekend. Warner Bros.’ Angryalso in its second release, ran out of gas with $10.8 million, followed by Paramount’s May remainder IF with $10.5 million, 20th Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes with $8.9 million and Universal’s The guy who falls just in time with $4.2 million. Once again, none of them meet the definition of an all-ages tentpole, despite large budgets in some cases.
Nowadays, Monkeys is the only summer film to gross $100 million domestically, although it, with IFare considered moderate successes in their own right (IF grossed $80.2 million nationally). This time last year, The little Mermaid had grossed $206 million and Guardians $328 million.
“When The little Mermaid opened to $118 million, people called it soft,” recalls a studio source. “Can you imagine?”
This story first appeared in the June 5 issue of The Hollywood Reporter magazine. Click here to subscribe.