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Week 23 | June 7 – 9, 2024
Range Top 10 | Weekend 23, 2024: $75 million to $115 million
Top 10 overall | Weekend 23, 2023: $165,326,145
Podium Box-office Pro
Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | June 7 – 9, 2024
1. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Sony Photos | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $45-$60M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 24%
Benefits
- After the disappointing performance of The guy who falls just in time And Furiosa: A Mad Max sagait wouldn’t be strange to expect a debut in the $30 million range for Bad boys ride or die. We expect more based on our pre-release tracking, which has been consistently positive over the past few weeks. Our prediction panel estimates that there should be enough business and positive buzz for this film to cross the $40 million mark, with real potential for the title to rise to $60 million if all goes as planned. At this time, we believe the $45-$55 million forecast accurately reflects the interest and awareness this title has generated.
- With a reported budget of around $100 million, Sony’s expectations will likely be met by opening weekend, but that won’t be enough for an exhibition sector that desperately needs another hit . The high reference for Ride or die is the $62.5 million opening frame of the series’ latest entry, 2020’s Bad boys for life, which grossed $204.4 million domestically as the last pre-pandemic blockbuster. Although we’re currently going through a depressed summer box office, we’ve seen enough examples of pre-pandemic franchises being revitalized in the post-2020 era, with the fourth film installments. Planet of the Apes And John Wick franchises claiming audiences are still willing to support beloved IPs.
- The big elephant in the room Bad Boys: Ride or Die This is obviously Will Smith, whose Oscar slapping incident two years ago significantly dented the superstar’s once bulletproof image. The good news is that Sony was confident enough to give Smith his full $25 million quote to come back for more. Bad Boys, and even Newsweek reported last year that the star’s overall approval poll rating was on the rise again. Having a capable star with something to prove can be a positive, and Hollywood loves a comeback story. So far, reviews for the new fourth film are also positive with 69% on Rotten Tomatoes.
The inconvenients
- Smith definitely lost some of his shine after the slap, and this outing will be a real test to see if the former King of Summer can still launch a film. Smith needs the audience to “roll,” or his career might…well, you know. While Smith took the path to prestige afterBad Boys 3 with turns Emancipation and an Oscar trophy for King RichardLawrence only appeared in a VOD drama called Mental cageand he’s decades away from being billed on Smith as he was on the first Bad Boys. It doesn’t help that Smith and Lawrence start showing their age nearly thirty years after the 1995 original. Also, Bad boys for life benefited from a 17-year gap between entries (Bad Boys 3 And 4 were both announced in the summer of 2015), which brought a certain level of anticipation to the idea of seeing Marcus and Mike together again. Now, only four years have passed since the duo decided to ride together “one last time,” so the novelty may have faded.
Last years John Wick: Chapter 4 and the recent Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes Still, the four action sequels don’t always play better than their predecessor. Here are some recent national compositions…
- Jason Bourne (2016) – $162.1 million (Previous: $227.4 million)
- The predator (2018) – $51 million (Previous: $52 million)
- The Matrix Resurrections (2021) – $40.4 million (previous: $139.2)
- Spend4bles (2023) – $16.7 million (previous: $39.3 million)
2. The observers
Images from Warner Bros. | NEW
Opening Weekend Range: $8-$15M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 12%
Benefits
- Buried amid the brouhaha around the underperformance of Angry these last few weeks that’s it The Strangers: Chapter 1 has quietly become a real success story for Lionsgate, already surpassing the previous film’s gross and looking to cross the $30 million mark soon. This bodes well not only for the next two shoots already carried out. Foreigners chapters, but for an audience looking for new summer scares after a drought of dynamic products this year. With its strange atmosphere, its original concept and its “Shyamalan” brand (plus a well-known name in the lead, Dakota Fanning), The observers could be a good bet to continue the revitalization of the genre. A female-led PG-13 psychological horror film is also perfect counter-programming to the R-rated/male-oriented action mayhem of Bad Boys.
The inconvenients
- Executive producer M. Night Shyamalan himself has a varied reputation, with some of his productions being horror (The event, Lady in the water, Old) making himself ridiculed between more successful outings (Visit, Divide, Knock on the cabin). Does the Shyamalan connection help or hurt this film? The studio certainly leans on the brand when it comes to marketing. Tying his reputation to that of his daughter – ignoring any optics of nepotism – may not be the best way to launch the feature film directing career of 23-year-old Ishana Night Shyamalan. Early reactions are already seeing a backlash to the film’s “twist,” a device for which M. Night is famous.
The elements of supernatural folk horror behind the Irish setting The observers are a random trope to hang a horror film like this by, and may explain a lack of knowledge of the film and its ambiguously titled monsters, despite it being based on an AM Shine novel. Some other recent folk horror films include…
- The witch (2015) – $25.1 million
- The relic (2015) – $8,967,000
- Hagazusa (2017) – $13,253,000
- Solicitude (2019) – $27.4 million
- Drink (2021) – $10.6 million
- Lord of mismanagement (2024) – $3,717,000
3. The Garfield Movie
Sony Photos | Week 3
3-day range: $6 million to $10 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 10%
Benefits
- After a weekend that saw this animated film jump from No. 2 to No. 1, a cascading series of school summer vacations should help The Garfield Movie continue playing before Inside Out 2 asks the children’s audience next weekend. Riding the momentum of being at the top of the charts last weekend could add up to another healthy (if slightly anemic) weekend for this family programmer. Overall, the weekend seems well-balanced with films for every quadrant, including young adults and seniors (Bad Boys: Ride or Die), teenagers (The observers), and children (The Garfield Movie, IF).
The inconvenients
- While Garfield has had strong positions and decent resistance in the market, how do its declines compare to its main family competitor IF on the domestic market?
- WEEK 1: IF ($33.7 million) / The Garfield Movie ($24 million)
- WEEK 2: IF ($16.1 million, -52%) / The Garfield Movie ($14M, -42%)
- WEEK 3: IF ($10.5M, -35%)
So during The Garfield Movie has not only been constantly overtaken by IF in terms of domestic gross, it will have to gain at the highest of our estimates simply to remain stable with IFIt’s drops. Should Garfield enters the bottom of the scale, it is also quite possible that IF could remain No. 3 as has been the case over the last two weekends. Sony can take solace in knowing that Garfield is disturbing IF overseas, however, and has a higher worldwide gross overall ($153.7 million versus $138.8 million).
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