“IF” isn’t exactly a box office bright spot. But Paramount’s kid-friendly fantasy about imaginary friends has grown since its $33 million debut. Its current total — $93 million domestically and $160 million worldwide — is decent for a live-action original PG film.
Actor Patrick Schwarzenegger (who has no discernible connection to the film) prophesied this staying power when “IF” failed to respond to initial screenings. “Give it a few weeks,” he wrote on …but… ‘Fall Guy’ continues to have crazy legs,” while conceding that “the budget was still too high.”
Especially in this dark summer season, some box office observers have questioned the need to pay attention to opening weekends. A recent Vulture article believes that obsessing over them helps “propagate the idea that being open on the weekend is all that matters.”
Is it fair to fast and furiously stigmatize a film? Critics like Schwarzenegger say so-called “smash-and-grab” labels offer no nuance. Worse still, they say, these descriptions… Variety classified “The Fall Guy” as disappointing with 28 million dollars or “Furiosa: A Mad Max Saga” dark with its $31 million start – is sparking negative headlines and unfairly judging the health of the movie theater business based on short-term fluctuations rather than trends over time.
“It would be nice to say that opening weekends don’t matter,” says Stephen Galloway, dean of the film school at Chapman University. “Unfortunately, given the cost of films and inflation, opening weekend is Hollywood’s only strategy. There is no alternative.
Movies don’t do it always live and die in their beginnings. Sony’s romantic comedy “Anyone but You,” Pixar’s “Elemental” and Illumination’s “Migration” are recent examples of films that didn’t have spectacular debuts but continued to sell tickets for weeks thanks to by word of mouth. But aside from the rare exception in the form of “Greatest Showman,” opening weekends are of outsized importance for one reason: Those early days tend to dictate a film’s entire theatrical release. On the Sunday of opening weekend, studio executives can predict with great accuracy what a film will earn by the time it leaves theaters.
“The national theater performance is the engine that pulls the train, and opening weekend sets the tone,” says David A. Gross of Franchise Entertainment Research. “I don’t see that changing.”
Although films begin as creative endeavors, Gross continues, “the film business is just that: a business.” Paramount spent $110 million to produce “IF” — a significant portion of which went to the voices of Steve Carell, Matt Damon, Emily Blunt, Bradley Cooper and George Clooney. It will struggle to generate the roughly $275 million needed to break even on its theatrical production, according to people familiar with the movie’s finances.
“IF” isn’t the only summer release bogged down by a hefty budget. “The Fall Guy” cost $140 million and grossed $165 million worldwide. But sources suggest it needs to reach $275 million to $300 million to turn a profit. Warner Bros.’ $168 million sci-fi prequel “Furiosa” grossed $144 million. Still, insiders say it will take about $350 million to $375 million to get into the black. (A Warner Bros. spokesperson disputes this, saying “Furiosa” has a lower break-even point.) At this rate, “The Fall Guy” is expected to lose between $50 million and $60 million on its theatrical release, and “Furiosa” is expected to lose $50 million to $60 million. lose 75 to 95 million dollars. Even “Kingdom of the Planet of the Apes,” the fourth highest-grossing film of the year with $360 million worldwide, must continue to break its box office record to justify its $160 million price tag.
Budgets have skyrocketed because the cost of everything – including travel to filming locations, labor costs, paying talent and reshoots – has increased. And of course, there are the millions of dollars in marketing or other expenses associated with releasing a film theatrically. Meanwhile, the box office is in decline: domestic revenue is down 26% from 2023, according to Comscore.
“It’s almost impossible for movies to get cheaper,” Galloway says. “It’s only going to increase.”
Since COVID, Hollywood has found new ways to enrich itself after the theatrical life of a film. However, domestic box office revenue determines how lucrative a licensing deal a film can obtain from streamers, cable television or other downstream sources. And theater owners still keep about 50% of box office ticket sales. The general rule is therefore that studios need films to bring in 2.5 times their production budget to get out of the red.
Many films eventually, over generations, break even on ancillary revenue. Even Elaine May’s infamous 1987 flop “Ishtar” found its way into obscurity from the start, according to leaked emails from the 2014 Sony hack.
So what’s the problem with ticket sales? Box office reporting is a rare moment of transparency for a company that prefers to operate opaquely. New players like Netflix and Amazon Prime tout baseless audience metrics for titles they consider a hit and avoid scrutiny for underperforming streaming films by never revealing the data. Even traditional studios draw the curtains as soon as a film leaves the big screen. They certainly don’t reveal how much their films make through licensing fees, on-demand rentals, or the handful of DVDs they’re able to sell. While streaming has helped, nothing has replaced the collapse of the DVD industry, which helped save many underperforming blockbusters.
“Studios and producers look at the whole pie: all revenue streams, including merchandise and theme parks. They don’t look at movie profits and losses in isolation,” says Gross. “The pieces are more complicated now and they fit together in different ways.”
And a little patience is enough. If “Ishtar” is any indicator, this crop of summer blockbusters will break even by 2040.