California’s COVID numbers are rising thanks, in part, to new subvariants, suggesting an earlier-than-normal start to the summer season.
The percentage of COVID tests coming back with positive results in the state increased to 5.3% for the week ended June 3, up from 2.2% the month before.
The numbers are still relatively low — last summer’s peak positive test rate was 13.1% — but the increases are getting the attention of doctors and health officials as the summer travel season begins.
“The numbers are definitely increasing,” said Dr. Elizabeth Hudson, regional chief of infectious diseases at Kaiser Permanente Southern California. Among Kaiser’s 4.8 million members in Southern California, the COVID increase is mostly among people who are not hospitalized.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health reported an average of 106 COVID cases for the week ending June 2. This is an increase from 67 cases per day for the week ended May 12.
“We’ve seen this happen over the last four and a half years. We know we tend to see another wave around this time,” Hudson said. This one “started a little bit earlier, so it may peak a little bit earlier, and often we don’t see these hospitalized cases until a little further along.”
COVID levels are also increasing in wastewater. In Los Angeles County, wastewater levels were 16% of the winter peak for the week ended May 25, compared to 8% for the week ended May 4. In Santa Clara County – the most populous county in the Bay Area – COVID levels in wastewater are considered high from San Jose to Palo Alto. There is also a notable increase in San Francisco wastewater samples.
Across California, the presence of COVID in wastewater reached a high level for the week ended June 1, for the first time since February.
New sub-variants are becoming increasingly necessary on a national scale. For the two-week period that ended Friday, 55% of estimated COVID samples in the U.S. belonged to the FLiRT variants — up from 28.6% a month earlier. Another newcomer, LB.1, is estimated to account for 14.9% of specimens nationwide, up from 6.7% last month.
The parent of the FLiRT and LB.1 subvariants, the dominant winter strain JN.1, now makes up about 3.1% of strains nationwide. LB.1 is similar to the FLiRT sub-variants – known officially as KP.1.1, KP. 2 and KP.3 — and neither is much different from JN.1, said Dr. Peter Chin-Hong, an infectious disease specialist at UC San Francisco.
“They are different enough to probably increase and exploit vulnerabilities, and they are very transmissible, but not so different” from JN.1 that they pose a higher risk of severe illness, Chin-Hong said. .
Still, doctors remain concerned about the risk of severe illness and death among older adults and immunocompromised people, especially those who have not received an updated vaccine since September. More than 44,000 COVID deaths have been reported since October; In contrast, the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s weekly flu surveillance report estimates 24,000 flu deaths during the same period.
A report released in March by the CDC looking at immunocompromised adults found that only 18% had received an updated COVID-19 vaccine since September.
The CDC urges everyone ages 6 months and older to get vaccinated with the updated vaccine, and for people 65 and older, two shots — as long as four months have passed since the first.
But with only 36% of California’s seniors having received a COVID shot since September, doctors say it’s important that the remaining population 65 and older get a shot now.
A number of racial and ethnic groups have begun to see even lower vaccination rates among older adults. In California, only 31.6% of Black seniors, 29.9% of Asian American seniors, and 22.8% of Latino seniors have received an updated COVID-19 vaccination.
Vaccination rates for seniors also vary by region — lower than the state average in much of Southern California and higher in the San Francisco Bay Area. Los Angeles County reports that 30.8% of its seniors have up-to-date vaccinations; in San Diego County, 38.6%; Orange County, 34.2%; Riverside County, 28.1%; San Bernardino County, 26.3%; Ventura County, 37.4%; and Santa Barbara County, 40.4%.
The percentage is about 46% in Santa Clara County, more than 50% in San Francisco and almost 60% in Marin County.
“So many people didn’t even get a single chance. How about just making sure that happens? » Chin-Hong said about the elderly. “Everyone over 65 should probably get vaccinated before the new vaccine comes out in the fall.”
If a senior got the COVID vaccine now, there would still be plenty of time to get the formulation coming this fall around Halloween, which is a good time to get vaccinated to protect against the winter surge of COVID infections, Chin-Hong said.
“For those who are more vulnerable, I would definitely recommend getting either the first shot or the second,” Hudson said.
Chin-Hong said the patients he has seen hospitalized for COVID have not received an updated vaccine in the last year.
There is still good data demonstrating the vaccine’s effectiveness, even though the latest version was designed against the XBB.1.5 subvariant, which was supplanted by JN.1 this winter.
In a report submitted last week to a U.S. Food and Drug Administration advisory committee, CDC epidemiologist Ruth Link-Gelles said the September vaccine provided increased protection against symptomatic illness as well as hospitalizations and emergency room visits and emergency care associated with COVID, compared to those who did not. I don’t get an updated photo.
But scientists also observed a weakening of immunity over time – which is not surprising, given that the same phenomenon was observed with previous anti-Covid vaccines. As before, the longest-lasting protection offered by the new vaccine protects against severe disease, Link-Gelles said.
The latest vaccine provides protection against JN.1, but perhaps less than if a person is exposed to an XBB subvariant, Link-Gelles said.
The FDA’s Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee voted unanimously last week to recommend that the updated COVID vaccine formula this fall be designed against JN.1 rather than FLiRT or another JN descendant .1.
Betting on one of the later descendants like FLiRT could result in a bad match if another descendant overtakes him. But sticking with a shot that protects against the parent strain can ensure a better match this winter.
“The COVID vaccination still provides very good protection against serious illness and against people ending up in the hospital,” Hudson said. Still, “COVID is very, very new to us as a species, and by the very nature of what coronaviruses do, they tend to mutate quickly. So it’s not surprising that over time, the protection you would get from this COVID vaccine would tend to diminish a little.
One promising development that is still not available is getting a flu and COVID vaccine in one shot. It probably won’t happen until fall 2025, but its revelation could be a game-changer and improve COVID vaccination rates. An estimated 22.5% of adults nationwide reported being vaccinated against COVID, according to survey data reported to the CDC, compared to about 48.5% for the flu.
“If you can get two things with one needle, I’m all for it,” Chin-Hong said.
The Moderna version of the combined flu and COVID vaccine was actually more effective than receiving the COVID and flu vaccines separately, Hudson said. Other manufacturers are also expected to develop combination flu and COVID vaccines.
The Los Angeles County Department of Public Health reported a slight increase in new COVID-related hospitalizations — an average of 19.6 per day, up from 16.9 per day about three weeks ago. Nine percent of hospitalized patients are in intensive care, but “deaths remain relatively low and stable,” with an average of one death per day, the agency said.
Previously, LA County’s mid-year surge in COVID cases and hospitalizations began in early July – in 2021 and 2023 – but in early May 2022.
“With increased travel and gatherings over the summer, protection against COVID-19 infection remains important as a new group of variants has begun circulating across the country,” said the Minister of Public Health. “Summer plans can easily be disrupted by COVID-19 disease and increased transmission continues to pose increased risk to older adults. »
In addition to staying up to date on vaccinations, officials suggest common-sense steps to reduce the risk of spreading disease and getting sick: having sick people stay home and wash their hands often , especially before eating and after sneezing or coughing. Testing for COVID is important to help limit the spread of the disease and can also help people know when to ask for an anti-COVID medication such as Paxlovid, which can reduce people’s risk of serious illness or death. at higher risk.
Contagious people with COVID should stay home and, if they need to be around others, should wear a mask. Those who want to reduce the risk of being infected can wear a mask in indoor public places and busy areas.