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Week 24 | June 14 – 16, 2024
Range Top 10 | Weekend 24 2024: $133 million – $178 million
Top 10 overall | Weekend 24, 2023: $163,783,549
Podium Box-office Pro
Forecast of the top 3 films at the domestic box office | June 14 – 16, 2024
1. Upside down 2
Disney/Pixar | NEW
Weekend Range: $85-$115M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 34%
Benefits
- Nine years ago, Pixar’s first film Upside down opened to $90.4 million domestically on 3,946 screens to take the top spot, and we expect Inside Out 2 to perform at the same level – or exceed – this performance. The two Paramounts IF and Sony The Garfield Movie have recently shown strong positions, proving that family audiences are ready to see the right film at the right time. IF And Garfield have been running for several weeks and pose little threat to Upside downand most summer school holidays are in full swing – factors that will only help Inside Out 2 capture national attention. There’s a clear path for Disney/Pixar to open this one big and hold on since there’s only one contender for this demo on the schedule when Universal/Illumination’s Despicable Me 4 arrives during the 4th of July weekend. We banged the drum for the new Upside downhas the potential to become the top $100 million opener of 2024. However, even if it opens at the low end of our range, it should still surpass this year’s monster openings. Dune: part two ($82.5 million) and Godzilla X Kong: The New Kingdom ($80 million) to become the biggest opening weekend of the year so far.
- Pixar Elementary was released this time last year to a disappointing $29.6 million, spending the next few weeks fending off headlines calling it a bomb before showing resilience at the box office. This film ultimately collected $154.4 million domestically and $484.8 million worldwide, even surpassing the output of some pre-pandemic studios like Cars 3 And The good dinosaur, proving that there’s still an audience for Pixar’s magical weaves. Pixar’s best performance has been sequels and spin-offs, giving Inside Out 2 great potential to become the first sequel to the second best-performing animation studio’s original title at the box office. Fandango presales are already higher than the first Upside down and the highest for Pixar since Toy Story 4– which opened to $120 million.
The inconvenients
- The Pixar brand has struggled in the pandemic era, since AheadTheatrical release was halted in February 2020. Disney’s decision to drop the following three Pixar feature films –Soul (95% RT), Lucas (91% RT), and Turn red (95% RT) – straight to Disney+ has blunted the perception of Pixar from a powerful animated hit maker to a mere corporate content silo. THE toy story spin off Light year got a theatrical bow in summer 2022, but disappointed with just $50.5 million domestic/$218.7 million WW. These five failures and Elementary’The struggling opening weekend means Pixar is no longer the bulletproof box office juggernaut of the 2010s. Inside Out 2 needs to open big and stay big for the sake of Pixar and for the viability of Disney animation as a whole, which hasn’t had major box office success since 2019. Frozen II and has seen rivals like Illumination and Dreamworks gain a significant foothold in their territory.
2. Bad Boys: Ride or Die
Sony Photos | Week 2
Weekend Range: $28-$35M
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 16%
Benefits
- Bad Boys returns for its second frame without direct competition in the market, given that Bad Boys offers an R-rated stock while Inside Out 2 is rated G and family oriented. We’re expecting a superb take from this one in its second period, especially with $6,217,847 million already on the books for Monday. As mentioned last weekend, the return of Will Smith and Martin Lawrence as wacky buddy cops won over audiences with a 97% Rotten Tomatoes audience score, a 5-star PostTrak rating, and an “A” CinemaScore -». That means word of mouth should trump any hesitation from those who are indifferent to the film during opening weekend.
The inconvenients
- While that $56.5 million opening is great for 2024, it’s still lower than last installment’s January opening of $62.5 million, Bad boys for life. Will the fourth film continue to take place in the shadow of the other films in the franchise? Let’s take a look at the catches from the second week of the previous three…
- Bad Boys (1995) – $11,016,040 million 2nd frame (decrease of -29%)
- Bad Boys II (2003) – $22,051,422 million 2nd frame (decrease of -53%)
- Bad boys for life (2020) – $34,011,714 million 2nd frame (decrease of -46%)
3. The Garfield Movie
Sony Photos | Week 4
Weekend range: $4 to $6 million
The Boxoffice Company Schedules Dashboard Market Share: 8%
Benefits
- The big orange cat still holds up well, and while he’s no longer the primary choice for the family demo, his broad humor makes him an ideal choice for parents of young children looking to avoid the inevitable tears that come out of a Pixar movie. Out-of-stock fallout Inside Out 2 the shows should also add a bit more mileage.
The inconvenients
- While the families asked The Garfield Movie these last weeks, Upside down 2 is much closer to a four-quadrant film, with many adults expected for the generally more sophisticated/broader scope of Pixar-style storytelling.
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