The third major championship of 2024 did not disappoint as Bryson Dechambeau capped a sensational week with the second US Open victory of his career. The season continues in Cromwell, Connecticut, where TPC River Highlands hosts the 2024 Travelers Championship. This is another designated event with a $20 million purse.
TPC River Highlands is a 6,841 yard par-70 that has been a PGA Tour stop for 40 years. Home to the only 58 in Tour history, it’s possible to go extremely low with this Pete Dye design. However, TPC River Highlands presents a difficult final round with holes 16-18 with historically average scores above par.
The Travelers Championship will welcome 72 golfers this week. Being a flagship event, almost all the top players on Tour will participate.
PGA Tour U winner Michael Thorbjornsen will make his season debut this week at Travelers.
Past Travelers Championship winners
- 2023: Keegan Bradley (-23)
- 2022: Xander Schauffele (-19)
- 2021: English Harris (-13)
- 2020: Dustin Johnson (-19)
- 2019: At Reavie (-17)
- 2018: Bubba Watson (-17)
- 2017: Jordan Spieth (-12)
- 2016: Russell Knox (-14)
Key stats for TPC River Highlands
Let’s take a look at five key TPC River Highlands metrics to determine which golfers are posting the best marks in each category over their last 24 rounds.
1. Strokes gained: approach
Shots Gained: Approach takes the top spot in the stats model this week. The course is relatively short and golfers with several skill types compete here. Iron play is often the great equalizer for smaller hitters to compete, and that should be the case again this week.
SG: Approach over the last 24 laps:
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.61)
- Corey Conners (+1.11)
- Sepp Straka (+0.92)
- Xander Schauffele (+0.91)
- Tony Finau (+0.88)
2. Par 4 Birdie or better %
With only two par 5s on the course, the importance of the par 4 score cannot be understated. Whoever plays the par 4s most effectively this week will put themselves in charge.
By 4 Birdie or better % in the last 24 rounds:
- Eric Cole (25.4%)
- Scottie Scheffler (+24.6%)
- Patrick Cantlay (+23.5%)
- Rory McIlroy (+22.8%)
- Wyndham Clark (+22.7%)
3. Strokes gained: ball striking
Ball striking combines off the tee and approach and will be the stat I use to incorporate play off the tee this week. The overemphasis on approach play will incorporate golfers giving themselves many birdie looks at the event.
SG: Ball striking after 24 rounds:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.56)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1.67)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.57)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.44)
- Corey Conners (+1.31)
4. Course History
Course history proved to be a major factor at TPC River Highlands. With seven golfers having multiple victories on the course, familiarity could be key at the Travelers Championship.
Strokes gained: Total at TPC River Highlands per round over the last 36 rounds:
- Xander Schauffele (+2.03)
- Patrick Cantlay (+2.02)
- Brian Harman (+1.98)
- Rory McIlroy (+1.97)
- Scottie Scheffler (+1.54)
5. Strokes Gained: Pete Dye’s Total Designs
TPC River Highlands is another prototype Pete Dye course where many of the same golfers play well and consistently.
SG: Pete Dye by lap over last 36 laps:
- Scottie Scheffler (+2.49)
- Xander Schauffele (+2.22)
- Ludvig Aberg (+1.86)
- Brian Harman (+1.66)
- Patrick Cantlay (+1.61)
6. Strokes gained: putting on Curved/POA Blend
TPC River Highlands is another prototype Pete Dye course where many of the same golfers play well and consistently.
Moves gained: setting up a Bent/POA mix over the last 24 rounds:
- Denis McCarthy (+1.41)
- Xander Schauffele (+1.04)
- Keegan Bradley (+1.01)
- Robert MacIntyre (+0.98)
- Wyndham Clark (+0.84)
Travelers Championship Model Rankings
Below, I’ve compiled the overall model rankings using a combination of the five key statistical categories discussed previously: SG: Approach (26%), Par 4 Birdie or Better % (13%), SG: Ball Strike ( 20%), History course (13%), SG: Putting Bent/POA (14%) and SG: Pete Dye (14%).
- Xander Schauffele
- Rory McIlroy
- Scottie Scheffler
- Victor Hovland
- Corey Conners
- Sahith Theegala
- Brian Harman
- Keegan Bradley
- Colin Morikawa
- Tony Finau
2024 Travelers Championship Picks
Patrick Cantlay +2500 (FanDuel)
When a player competes in a major the week before, I usually like to fade said player the following week. However, this week feels a little different. Cantlay has struggled all season and I can’t help but think the former FedEx Cup champion found something at the US Open. I don’t think he was incredibly disappointed with the outcome either. He played well on Sunday and was impressive throughout the weekend, finally getting a real feel for what major championship contention looks like. Everything was positive for Cantlay at Pinehurst.
Cantlay will now head to a place where he has had an incredible amount of success but has yet to notch a victory. In his last six starts on the course, he has finished no lower than 15th. His best start came last year, where he finished T4. He placed 1st in Strokes Gained: Total at TPC River Highlands. Cantlay is also a Pete Dye specialist and ranks 4th in the field in Strokes Gained: Total on Dye tracks. The 32-year-old ranks 3rd in birdie percentage or best par 4.
Cantlay was spectacular across the board at Pinehurst. For the week, he ranked 3rd in Strokes Gained: Approach, 7th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking and 10th in Strokes Gained: Putting. I expect him to build on this performance and compete again in one of his favorite stages of the Tour.
Sam Burns +3500 (DraftKings)
Sam Burns had a great Sunday at Pinehurst, which is always a bonus heading into the following week. He shot -3 in his final round, which put him in the top ten (T9) in what was a successful major for a player who hasn’t performed his best there historically.
Burns is a prolific birdie who can win a boat race down to -20 as well as anyone on Tour. He has also had some success at both Pete Dye courses, where he ranks 13th in strokes gained: total over his last 36 rounds, and at TPC River Highlands, where he ranks 12th in strokes gained: total during his last 36 laps.
Burns has been playing solid golf lately. He has four top-15 finishes in his previous starts, including a T13 at the Wells Fargo Championship, a 10th place at the RBC Canadian Open and a 15th place at the Memorial Tournament. He has won strokes on approach and off the tee in five of his last six starts.
The LSU product can win golf tournaments in a variety of ways. His ability to make putts if it turns into a wedge and putting contest makes him a strong contender to face this week.
Sahith Theegala +4500 (BetRivers)
Sahith Theegala has played some solid golf over the past few months. As we saw last year with Keegan Bradley, a missed cut at the US Open shouldn’t necessarily scare someone away from a player who matches up at TPC River Highlands, which I believe Theegala does.
TPC River Highlands is the site of Theegala’s near-victory a few years ago. He finished tied for 2nd in 2022 after making a double bogey on the 18th hole with a one-shot lead, losing to Xander Schauffele. Theegala will now return to the course as a more mature player who is in the midst of the best season of his career.
This season, the former Haskins Award winner has had strong results in some of the season’s biggest events. He finished 5th at the Waste Management Phoenix Open, 6th at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, 9th at the PLAYERS Championship, 2nd at the RBC Heritage and 12th at the Memorial Tournament and PGA Championship.
Over his last 24 rounds, Sahith ranks 12th in strokes gained: approach, 11th in strokes gained: ball striking, 18th in birdie Par 4 or better percentage and 8th in strokes gained: putting on surfaces mixed putts folded/POA.
If this turns into another shootout, Theegala has the type of hitting and putting combination that can win a race at -20.
Sungjae I am +6600 (BetRivers)
After seemingly returning to form over the past month, Sungjae took a step back during last week’s US Open. The South Korean missed the cut, shooting +10 in his first two rounds. Despite the disappointing result, I don’t think a bad start on a long and difficult golf course is reason enough to abandon it.
Although the score was unfortunate at Pinehurst #2, I hit the ball pretty well from tee to green. During his two rounds, he gained strokes both off the start and on the approach. His downfall has been with the putter, which can be extremely hit or miss, especially during this season.
Prior to the US Open, Sungjae had finished in the top ten in three of his previous four starts. He finished T4 at the Wells Fargo “Signature Event” at Quail Hollow, T9 at the Charles Schwab Challenge and T8 at the Memorial Tournament. He also won strokes off the tee in nine consecutive events.
Im made three starts at TPC River Highlands, finishing 21st, 58th and 29th, respectively. I hit the fairways at a high rate which will be a huge advantage this week and his lack of driving distance won’t be a problem. He also ranks 12th in the field in his last 24 laps in Strokes Gained: Total on Pete Dye designs.
It’s been a long time since Im won an event (Shriners 2021), but I think he’s back in the spotlight and is still a high-end talent on the PGA Tour with another victory to come.
Tom Kim +6600 (BetRivers)
After a sluggish start to the 2024 season, Tom Kim has regained momentum in recent months. The South Korean began his streak of impressive play at Valhalla for the PGA Championship, finishing 24th. After that, Kim finished T4 at the RBC Canadian Open and T26 at the US Open last week. Between the two, he finished T43 at Memorial, but hit the ball from tee to green very well.
Tom has done an impressive job playing well in long and difficult setups, but this week he will head to a course at TPC River Highlands that should have his game impeccable. Both of Kim’s wins came via short setups that mitigated his biggest weakness, driving distance. The course is short this week and fits the mold of tracks that Tom has had great success on over the past few seasons on Tour.
Over his last 24 rounds, Kim ranks 7th in Par 4 birdie percentage or better, which comes into play this week. He also ranks 19th in Strokes Gained: Ball Striking.
Kim is already a three-time PGA Tour winner and has shown that if he has a whiff of competition, he can close out a tournament with the best of them.
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