The Edmonton Oilers are two wins away from winning the club’s sixth Stanley Cup, and first since 1990.
After losing the first three games of the final, the club came back to win twice, forcing a sixth game at Rogers Place in Edmonton and sowing doubt in the minds of the Florida Panthers.
What do the Oilers need to do to win games 6 and 7?
The simple answer is to keep doing what they’re doing. Here are the details.
Score at five against five
In the first two games of the series, the Panthers won the five-on-five goal split 2-0 each time. In the third game, another loss for Edmonton, the goals were 3-3 in match status.
The Oilers outscored Florida 6-1 in Game 4 and were outscored 3-1 in Game 5, but delivered a brilliant night on special teams.
You can’t count on that kind of magic on the power play and penalty kill every game, and the team has to earn the minutes at five-on-five.
There is a good chance that the team that wins these minutes will win the Cup.
Connor McDavid leads Edmonton in scoring five-on-five in the final (2-4-6 in five games), with Warren Foegele (1-2-3), Dylan Holloway (2-1-3), Ryan McLeod (2 – 0-2) and Adam Henrique (1-1-2) also contributed.
Leon Draisaitl (0-2-2) is clearly not fully healthy and Zach Hyman (1-2-3) has yet to find the beach.
Defenders Darnell Nurse and Philip Broberg both scored in match status in the final and Evan Bouchard had two assists.
It doesn’t matter who scores, only that it happens early and often over the next two games.
Skinner in the zone
The Oilers defense and goaltender Stuart Skinner have produced quality results this spring, especially as each series goes deep.
Meghan Chayka of Stathletes has the numbers on Skinner, with her save percentages in each series going from .859 (Games 1-3) to .934 (Games 4-7).
This is a huge improvement that reflects the goaltending, coverage and positioning of all skaters on the ice.
Part of the success was surely due to Edmonton’s penalty kill, with Skinner stopping 19 of 20 shots (.950) and helping the Oilers take a 2-1 advantage shorthanded.
Overall, Skinner’s save percentage through the five Finals games (.902) is higher than that of Florida’s Sergei Bobrovsky (.896) and Anthony Stolarz (.842).
Few people predicted these numbers.
Optimize minutes
The coaching staff does a good job in this final regarding which players are “on” a given match.
A quick look at five-on-five ice time per game during the series against Florida provides some insight into Kris Knoblauch’s deployment.
In five games, TOI’s defensive leaders per game (five against five) are Bouchard (16:43), Mattias Ekholm (15:20) and Broberg (14:07).
There is no consideration for anything other than having the best players on the ice at any given time.
Nurse, a key player for the Oilers during the regular season and in previous playoffs, is averaging just 12:55 per game at five-on-five (the lowest total among Oilers regular defensemen) and 15: 24 in all forces (also the lowest total).
In Game 5, Cody Ceci played a good game and his ice time went from 3:44 at even strength in the first period to 6:13 in the third period. He was effective, the coaching staff recognized it and erased Bouchard and Broberg to make it happen.
Some of the men lost in this series may never get the chance to play in a final again. It does not matter. The common good comes first.
Welcoming youth
The Oilers are fighting against the kids in this final.
This is a good thing for now and for the future.
Broberg plays an important role on defense for Edmonton. He averages 14 minutes per five-on-five game against Florida, has a 67 percent (4-2) goal share in those minutes and showed composure and great recovery ability in the final.
Holloway has two goals in the final and plays with abandon.
Skinner is a key player for Edmonton, with a .950 save percentage on the penalty kill, which is a major story in this series.
Embrace Chemistry
In the final, Mattias Janmark and Connor Brown found a spark that lit a fire when they were on the ice together.
The numbers in the final are borderline impossible.
Shorthanded, Janmark and Brown played just under nine minutes together. In these minutes, Edmonton has the advantage in goals (2-1) and high-danger chances (2-1).
Brown has one shorthanded goal, Janmark the other. Both were huge goals during this series.
In 44 minutes of five-on-five play, the expected goal share when both men are on the ice together at five-on-five (41 percent) is low, but the goal share is 50 percent (1-1 ).
The two played 16 minutes of five-on-five against Aleksander Barkov’s line, keeping the top three to zero goals in the final, via Natural Stat Trick.
Knoblauch has found a duo capable of deploying in any situation (often with Henrique) and leads them heavily in difficult roles.
Play captain
Knoblauch’s job is to play his most effective players, regardless of their reputation or status.
Injuries have a lot to do with a reduction in playing time, but that is also part of the job the coach will face in these final two games of the finals.
Draisaitl is down from 3:30 p.m. to 1:03 p.m. at five to five. Evander Kane barely played in the final.
Knoblauch identifies the players best suited for the next shift and sends that unit to the boards.
Knoblauch owes it to the team and fans to play the best talent available on every shift. No exceptions.
The simplest decision an NHL coach can make today is to send McDavid to the boards when he is ready. His exceptional play throughout the season, and in the Finals, extends his status as one of the best in the game. It is fitting that he would perform on the biggest stage in such an impactful way.
Conclusion
Many of the key pieces of this Oilers team came together late, very late.
Broberg spent the season in the minors, Holloway arrived late.
Brown was in Edmonton all year, but he’s a completely different player as spring gives way to summer. The fall and winter struggles are a distant bell and he is a star player on a big line.
Last but not least, McDavid is the best player in the game and this is his time to shine like a diamond.
The next two games represent destiny. Expect the Oilers, led by their captain, to stand up and deliver.
(Photo: Jim Rassol / USA Today)