New subvariants of COVID-19, collectively dubbed FLiRT, continue to increase their dominance nationwide, fueling a surge in cases in Los Angeles County and an increase in coronavirus levels seen in wastewater from California.
Taken together, the data points to a resurgence of the coronavirus in the Golden State — one that, while not entirely unexpected given trends seen in previous pandemic summers, has arrived earlier and is driven by even more transmissible strains than those observed previously.
However, it is still unclear how bad the COVID situation could get this summer. Doctors said that by July 4, we might have a better idea of how the rest of the season will go.
The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that the FLiRT subvariants – officially known as KP.3, KP.2 and KP.1.1 – make up a total of 62.9% of specimens scaled nationally for the two-week period ending Saturday. That’s up from 45.3% a month ago.
Experts say the new subvariants are more contagious than the dominant winter subvariant, JN.1.
California is now one of 15 states with high or very high levels of coronavirus in wastewater, according to the CDC. These states are generally found in the West and South, as well as New England. Besides California, these are Alaska, Colorado, Connecticut, Florida, Hawaii, Idaho, Missouri, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Tennessee, from Texas, Utah and Wyoming.
Coronavirus levels in California wastewater have increased sharply overall since early May, contrasting with national trends, which indicate a slower increase. The latest level of weekly wastewater virus activity in California was close to the peak seen last summer.
In Santa Clara County, Northern California’s most populous, sewage levels are considered high across a large swath of Silicon Valley, from San Jose to Palo Alto.
Coronavirus levels in LA County wastewater have remained generally stable after increasing last month. For the week ending June 8, the most recent available, wastewater levels were 15% of the 2022-2023 winter peak – up from 13% the previous week, but down slightly by compared to 16% the previous week. Last summer peaked near the end of the season, when wastewater levels reached 38% of the 2022-2023 winter level.
However, reported cases of COVID-19 continue to rise. For the seven-day period ending June 16, an average of 154 cases per day were reported in Los Angeles County, up from 121 the week before. Reported cases are undercounted because they only indicate tests performed in medical facilities and do not include at-home tests. They also don’t reflect the fact that far fewer people are getting tested for COVID when they are sick.
The average daily number of people with COVID in LA County hospitals is also increasing. There was an average of 138 per day for the week ended June 15, compared to 126 the previous week.
COVID deaths remain stable, at less than one per day on average for the week ended May 28.
The percentage of COVID tests at California medical facilities that come back with positive results continues to increase. For the week ending June 17, 7.5% of COVID tests statewide came back positive, well above the 3.1% rate a month ago. Last summer’s peak was 13.1%, recorded at the end of August.
The California Department of Public Health in June updated its guidelines for older adults, “especially those with compromised immune systems.” Officials have urged seniors to stay up to date on their vaccinations, seek medication if they are sick with COVID and consider additional precautions, such as wearing a mask in crowded indoor areas, opening windows and doors to increase ventilation, stay away from sick people, wash. often use their hands and hide their coughs and sneezes.
The increase in some coronavirus tracking data comes as the U.S. Food and Drug Administration released new guidance for vaccine makers in mid-June. In a June 13 statement, the agency urged manufacturers, if possible, to design this fall’s vaccine formulation against KP.2 — one of FLiRT’s subvariants — instead of its parent, JN.1 .
The new recommendation reverses guidance from a week earlier, when the agency advised developing vaccines against JN.1.
“This change is intended to ensure that COVID-19 vaccines (formula 2024-2025) more closely match the circulating strains of SARS-CoV-2,” the FDA said in a statement, referring to the official name of the virus. COVID-19.
By this fall, the dominant COVID subvariant “will likely be closer to KP.2 than it might have been to JN.1,” said Dr. Peter Marks, director of the Center for FDA Biologics Evaluation and Research Report. press briefing Friday.
The mRNA vaccines, made by Pfizer and Moderna, will be able to produce shots this fall for KP.2. But the protein-based vaccine, made by Novavax, will still be designed against JN.1 – because manufacturing of the mRNA vaccine can be done more quickly, Marks said.
“What you can do when you make a protein-based vaccine versus an mRNA vaccine is different in terms of your agility to respond to what’s coming,” Marks said. Still, the difference between getting a vaccine designed against the new KP.2 subvariant and the slightly older JN.1 subvariant likely won’t result in “that big of a difference.”
“We won’t have a preference,” Marks said, when it comes to recommending the Pfizer or Moderna vaccine over Novavax. “The best vaccine to face this fall is the one you put in your arm. »
Marks said a vaccine designed against KP.2 “perhaps provides a little benefit” over a vaccine against JN.1. “Basically using the most recent update, we hope to provide protective immunity that will last longer,” Marks said in the late fall and winter.
“It’s like trying to give people the biggest advantage, right? The extra hundredth of a second you win (a race) with,” Marks said. “But I think the most important thing for people to know is that either way is perfectly fine to get.”
Federal officials have expressed hope that the COVID vaccine would be available earlier this year than in 2023. Last year’s rollout was complicated because the updated COVID vaccine came out slightly later than COVID-19 vaccines. seasonal flu, making it harder for people to get both vaccines at once. the same visit if they had preferred.
COVID-19 remains a disease that must be protected against, doctors say. About 45,000 COVID deaths have been reported since Oct. 1 nationwide, and doctors say those most at risk are the elderly and immunocompromised who have not received up-to-date vaccinations.
“It’s not just about taking place in the night. He’s hanging out,” Marks said.