CNN
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If you’re planning to take flight this summer, you should also expect lots and lots and lots of company. And some obstacles too.
Memorial Day weekend, the traditional launch pad for the summer travel season, is shaping up to be a hectic pace. The Federal Aviation Administration predicts this holiday will be the busiest in 14 years.
The Transportation Security Administration expects to screen 18 million passengers and crew between Thursday and Wednesday, an increase of more than 6% from last year. The TSA says it’s ready for its busiest summer ever.
American Airlines and United Airlines both expect about 10% more passengers over the holiday weekend compared to last year. United is expecting the biggest Memorial Day and summer travel season in the airline’s 98-year history, according to Andrew Nocella, United’s executive vice president and chief commercial officer.
When it comes to navigating the flocks of travelers, don’t look for much ease after Memorial Day weekend.
U.S. airlines are expected to carry 271 million passengers worldwide between June 1 and Aug. 31, according to the trade organization Airlines for America. This represents a 6.3% increase from last summer and a new record for U.S. airlines.
To meet increased demand, Airlines for America said U.S. carriers will offer more than 26,000 scheduled flights per day, an increase of nearly 1,400 per day from summer 2023.
As U.S. airlines have ramped up staffing levels and the TSA says it’s ready for the summer rush, a shortage of air traffic controllers, hot weather and crowded airports could lead to flight disruptions and problems.
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The air traffic control tower at Los Angeles International Airport is a busy place. The United States is still short thousands of air traffic control personnel.
Despite a surge in hiring last year, air traffic control stations nationwide are still short about 3,000 controllers, according to new FAA figures.
The figures show the challenge of filling the gap that led to flight delays and concerns that fatigue contributed to a series of near-misses on runways last year.
Current staffing shortages mean controllers at many facilities are regularly working overtime to fill gaps. This shortage worries airlines, controllers and monitoring organizations.
Scott Keyes, founder of the travel site Going, said that because of the way air traffic control maps are divided, airports in the New York and Florida metropolitan area have a slightly higher risk of be affected by air traffic control problems.
“I wouldn’t, you know, take that trip to New York or Miami because of air traffic control,” he said in an interview with CNN Travel. People arriving and departing from these markets should try to take early morning flights and nonstop flights to minimize problems if they arise.
“I was flying to New York a few days ago and my flight to New York was delayed four hours,” Keyes said. “It was painful, don’t get me wrong. But that just meant I arrived in New York four hours later.
“If I had connected in Chicago and my flight was delayed four hours, I would have missed that connection. And then it’s a much more delicate situation.
Hot weather and hurricanes
Tayfun Coskun/Anadolu Agency/Getty Images
A plane arrives at San Francisco International Airport at sunset on May 15. Much of the country is expected to experience above-average temperatures this summer. This could affect flights depending on the heat.
Much of the United States experiences varying probabilities of having temperatures higher than the summer average – particularly in the northeast and desert southwest.
Extreme heat can do more than make you miserable. It also affects airlines’ ability to maintain their normal schedules, according to a report from Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University.
“Hot air is rarefied air. Although this reduces the lift that planes rely on to take off, the main impact is on engine thrust. As a result, aircraft engines will produce less thrust during takeoff and climb,” said Bob Thomas, assistant professor of aeronautical sciences. “The only way to make takeoff on shorter runways possible would be to reduce the weight of the aircraft.”
He said airlines typically reduce weight by removing baggage or passengers, especially when temperatures reach triple digits. Cancellations are even possible. The report suggests trying to book early morning and late evening flights when you plan to fly in hot areas.
Experts also warn that as the effects of climate change become more pronounced, passengers can expect longer periods of turbulence during flights in the coming years. An atmospheric science professor says: “The seat belt signal will be on a lot brighter. »
And if you don’t know, meteorologists warn that we are gradually coming out of the El Niño cycle in the equatorial Pacific (with warmer waters) and are gradually moving into a La Niña period (with colder waters). And La Niña can sometimes generate increased cyclone activity along the U.S. Gulf and Atlantic coasts.
In fact, forecasters are predicting a “hyperactive Atlantic hurricane season” with eight to 13 hurricanes. They think four to seven of them could reach at least Category 3 strength, with sustained winds of 111 to 129 mph. (The hurricane scale goes up to Category 5, which has sustained winds of 157 mph or more.)
The bottom line, especially as summer moves toward peak hurricane season: keep an eye on the forecast if you have to fly.
Élie Nouvelage/AFP/Getty Images
Travelers are seen ahead of the July 4 holiday weekend at Hartsfield-Jackson Atlanta International Airport last year. Expect a sea of camaraderie at American airports this summer.
Passengers will need to watch their ground game this summer, Keyes said.
“Here’s how I say it: The airports are going to be extremely full. The planes will only be quite full.
Keyes said new aircraft deliveries and additional flights would ease the load factor. “There is about 10 to 15 percent more capacity this year compared to last year. And… more seats mean there will be more room for people to maneuver this summer, even during peak travel season.
This won’t help in crowded airports, however. He has some tips for mitigating this.
First, get TSA PreCheck and/or Fast Track so you can at least bypass possible security line bottlenecks.
Second, Keyes says he likes to find a quieter, more relaxing area of the airport, away from his gate, to relax before his flight. He downloads the airline’s mobile app, which notifies him just before boarding begins.
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This is the Roman Empire! Do you want to see the Colosseum and other sites of the ancient Italian capital of Rome? Flights there and to other points in Europe could cost you less this summer.
For travelers who need to carefully consider every dollar they spend, they might find that summer 2024 will be cheaper than last year.
Travel site Kayak reports that summer rates should be lower.
For domestic travelers in the United States, fares are expected to drop an average of 13% compared to 2023. Mexico sees an even greater decline with fares averaging 16% lower. And if Australia is a dream trip for you, these rates drop by an average of 14% (although the average price is $1,509, says Kayak).
For people scared by the crowds and high prices in Europe last summer, Keyes had good news.
“I think a lot of that pent-up demand (due to the pandemic) has been exhausted. I think this will lead to higher supply, lower demand and cheaper fares to Europe this summer.
Kayak shows a 7% drop in its prices in Europe compared to last summer.
While it’s not typical, Keyes said he recently spotted some round-trip mega-bargains that were almost nonexistent last summer: Paris for $570, Iceland for $475 and Dublin for $457.
CNN Senior Climate and Weather Editor Angela Fritz contributed to this report.