Michael Buckner for Variety
With tens of millions in his own pocket and a movie star’s ego on the line, how much will this long theatrical gamble cost the “Yellowstone” star?
A boxcar of ink has been poured in recent weeks over “Horizon: An American Saga,” the potentially ruinous three-hour roll of the dice that writer-producer-director-star Kevin Costner is making this weekend when the first of four planned films about the American West opens in theaters.
You’ve probably heard that movies — longtime passion projects of a cinema icon who in recent years reclaimed cultural relevance with the hit series “Yellowstone” — are expensive. The first cost $100 million to produce and will be followed a few weeks later by its sequel. You’ve probably also seen headlines in which Costner bluntly revealed that he spent $38 million of his own money to make the films, an unusually candid revelation from a star who was forced to gamble on himself. Maybe you saw the box office projections, predicting the film would gross $10 million to $15 million in its opening weekend, or the reviews, which averaged a dismal 40 % positive on Rotten Tomatoes.
What you may not know is the story that led him to this moment. It’s coming at an inflection point in mainstream filmmaking in Hollywood — where directors like Costner and Francis Ford Coppola (with his lightning rod “Megalopolis”) have had to go it alone to realize bold visions that weren’t considered commercially viable by studios or streamers. .
As it stands, the Oscar-winning “Dances With Wolves” actor has mortgaged land in Santa Barbara, Calif., to get his piece of the pie, and has raised additional funds for the films from mysterious investors. Its longtime partner, Warner Bros., is in the mix as a distributor for hire. However, the company does not spend any of its own funds on “Horizon”, not even on marketing.
But Costner’s saga was originally supposed to be a two-film affair. Warner Bros. was interested in the project before its merger with Discovery in 2022. Then known as WarnerMedia, CEO Jason Kilar gave his then-studio boss Toby Emmerich a mandate: release one “quality movie” per month exclusively on streaming, according to three people familiar with the matter. HBO Max was the fledgling service now known as Max, and millions were spent searching for content that would help attract subscribers to compete with the likes of Netflix (what a difference three years makes, since streaming budgets couldn’t be tighter today as companies scramble to monetize their platforms).
Emmerich and his team envisioned the project as a blanket acquisition, insiders said, meaning Warner Bros. would be on board to finance both films. Costner would be a stellar choice for a straight-to-streaming film, and the actor was a company man. Warner Bros. released some of the defining films of Costner’s career, including “JFK” and “The Bodyguard.” He was also recruited for franchises like DC’s “Man of Steel,” playing Superman’s adoptive father. But after AT&T ended its disastrous marriage with WarnerMedia and Discovery merged with the studio, things changed. Costner went to his new executives Michael De Luca and Pam Abdy with a different vision — not only giving “Horizon” a wide theatrical release, but also making two additional films, bringing the number of films to four. The films take place over a 12-year period, before and after the American Civil War, as a large ensemble of characters seek a better life in new lands.
Max’s streaming mandate for the movies changed overnight, but De Luca and Abdy wanted to honor the studio’s relationship with Costner, sources said. The package was briefly developed under Warner Bros.’ New Line label, but the economics quickly became worrisome (The New York Times reported this week that the studio had a small financial stake in the first two chapters of “Horizon.” A studio rep declined to comment, but a source familiar with the film said those costs would have been tied to New Line’s development expenses).
Kevin Costner as Hayes Ellison in “Horizon: An American Saga – Chapter 1”
Courtesy of Warner Bros. Pictures
Costner wasn’t interested in scaling back his vision and had to find the money on his own. The second “Horizon” project received $14 million in tax incentives from the state of Utah. In exchange for distributing the film in the U.S. and some international territories, Warner Bros. will receive about 8 percent of “Horizon’s” box office revenue, two people familiar with the matter said. Costner and his financial backers are footing the marketing bill. Multiple film marketing executives who spoke on the condition of anonymity with Variety said P&A spending on the film is easily $30 million, which two sources familiar with the matter confirm is accurate. The studio declined to comment.
The Warner Bros. film marketing team, led by Josh Goldstine, designed the campaign in collaboration with Costner and took some interesting steps to attract audiences. Some exhibitors sold tickets for the first two installments of Horizon at a discount or offered free concessions to attend the sequel.
Costner himself has done a dizzying amount of promotion in hopes of capturing the audience of mostly grown men who love his work on “Yellowstone” as patriarch John Dutton. This audience propelled the show to 12 million viewers per episode for some episodes, making it the most watched show on television. Sources say demographics are rarely considered in box office tracking and could, against all odds, show up and boost opening weekend numbers. Costner’s press tour included appearances at baseball games, local radio hits, and affiliated morning shows near military bases to connect with those crowds.
There’s a subliminal message behind all of Costner’s perplexities: he’s asking audiences to invest in and maintain their own star power, going against consumer habits and making his film a more refreshing moment to the age of streaming convenience and TikTok distractions. This message has been so insistent that even People magazine is writing articles about how Costner finds the studio’s support from Warner Bros. “gratifying.”
His campaign has not been as well-received as that of Coppola, whose film “Megalopolis” is a self-financed spectacle that sometimes borders on the avant-garde and was greeted as a rejection of an industry obsessed with profit and allergic to risk. Costner’s audacity may lie in the cool confidence he exudes despite the considerable risks he poses to his reputation and his wallet.
Representatives for Costner declined to comment on this report. Perhaps this weekend’s box office results will make all the difference.