Alex Pereira and Jiri Prochazka return earlier than expected.
No, Conor McGregor won’t be back on Saturday, but fans have had plenty of time to figure that out, and thanks to the matchmaking magic of Dana White and company, UFC 303 ended up with a main event with much higher stakes as Pereira defends his light heavyweight title in a rematch against Prochazka. Their first fight was exciting for as long as it lasted, even if a slightly early stoppage left us wanting more. Now, we get the rematch seven months later.
Not only that, but we were also treated to an unexpected and delightful co-lead, with Brian Ortega and Diego Lopes taking over. Jamahal Hill against. Khalil Rountree Jamahal Hill vs. Carlos Ulberg Anthony Smith against Carlos Ulberg …uh, to replace a light heavyweight co-main event. There were some unfortunate shenanigans before the fight, like Ortega reportedly struggling to make 145, precipitating a move to lightweight for both men, but on paper, this matchup is still a success.
In other main card action, Anthony Smith fights Roman Dolidze in a light heavyweight bout out of nowhere, recent bantamweight title challenger Mayra Bueno Silva looks to fend off Macy Chiasson, and Ian Machado Garry takes on longtime Bellator welterweight Michael “Venom” Page.
What: UFC 303
Or: T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas
When: Saturday, June 29. The four-fight preliminary card begins at 6 p.m. ET, followed by a four-fight preliminary card at 8 p.m. ET, all on ESPN and ESPN+. The five-fight main card begins at 10 p.m. ET and is available exclusively on ESPN+ pay-per-view.
(Numbers in parentheses indicate you are standing World ranking of MMA fights And Pound for Pound RankingINSW)
Alex Pereira (1, P4P-2) vs. Jiri Prochazka (2)
When these two first met, I confidently picked Alex Pereira because of his one-touch KO potential, and wonder of wonders, I was right even though he didn’t exactly flatten Jiri Prochazka. It was definitely a “vibe” pick, as Jed Meshew would say, and this too: Prochazka evens the score.
Pereira and Prochazka’s styles are not identical at all, and yet they are a perfect match. I truly believe that if these two fought 100 times, neither would win the majority of them. Such is their level of striking and their potential to end any fight in a flash.
Pereira has obvious upside, as we saw in the first fight. Pereira took advantage of Prochazka’s poor defense against kicks and when he found an opening, he landed one of those knockout punches he’s famous for. But let’s not forget that Prochazka has had his moments, too. He’s a gifted striker who can generate power from unconventional angles, so no one would have been surprised if the finishing sequence had been reversed. Nor should they be surprised if it happened on Saturday.
It takes a special kind of psychopath to volunteer to step into a cage with Pereira more than once, but that’s exactly who Prochazka is, and he’ll benefit from having faced “Poatan” once before. As reductive as it may seem, Prochazka now has a better sense of Pereira’s speed and power, and that familiarity could be what redeems him in the rematch.
In a game of inches, Prochazka makes it 1-1 with his own KO.
Take: Prochazka
Brian Ortega (5) vs. Diego Lopes (14)
There are some ugly undertones of last week’s Kelvin Gastelum debacle in the Brian Ortega-Diego Lopes weight class change, so I can understand why fans aren’t too happy with Mr. Ortega right now. This situation seems less sinister because it appears Ortega could have attempted to make weight this week (emphasis on “could have”), but when his team realized he couldn’t, they contacted Lopes’ team late Thursday night to request a lightweight fight.
On the other hand, Ortega had to know that making 145 pounds on such short notice would be difficult, especially since he was preparing for a possible move up to lightweight before he got the call to face Lopes. So they should have negotiated a different weight at that point, at least 48 hours before fight night. Bad idea.
How this affects the fighters tonight is anyone’s guess, though it certainly can’t hurt Ortega and I can’t imagine it’s good for Lopes. Apparently, Lopes was on schedule to make 145 before he learned around 3:30 a.m. that he would be competing at lightweight instead. So he could be a little worn out, which is problematic when facing an opponent known to be extremely dangerous in the third round.
In terms of grappling, Lopes is a match for Ortega on the ground, so a lot of this battle should come down to winning melees and holding positions. I prefer Lopes standing from a technical standpoint, even though Ortega has finishing power in his strikes.
Last week I picked Gastelum, but only because he would have been my pick with or without the weight issue. I’m sticking with that logic here because I was leaning toward Lopes at featherweight initially and I don’t think the last-minute change hurts his chances that much.
Take: Lopes
Anthony Smith (13) vs Roman Dolidze
It’s time for the mutant showdown!
That’s right, Jamahal Hill and Khalil Rountree were originally scheduled for the co-main event of UFC 303 until Rountree received a suspension for a positive drug test, then Carlos Ulberg was called up to fight Hill, but Hill withdrew due to a knee injury, then Anthony Smith stepped in to fight Ulberg, then Ulberg withdrew with injury. All of these matchups had implications for title contenders in the thin light heavyweight division.
The same can’t be said for the fight we ended up with, Smith vs. Roman Dolidze, although credit should be given to Dolidze for stepping up here and doing so after competing at 185 pounds in his last two fights.
I’m fascinated by Dolidze’s performance at 205 as he was actually undefeated at that weight class before retiring, which was probably a wise decision to avoid future clashes with much bigger opponents. Unfortunately for the Georgian, we’ve seen his ceiling at 185 as he’s lost to a few ranked fighters and now finds himself back at light heavyweight anyway.
Smith isn’t particularly big for the division, although he should have the edge in strength here, having made the weight class his home. He will look to fight Dolidze and wear him down early while looking for openings to land his own shots later. Stylistically, this fight is built for an end, and I favor the more combat-experienced Smith to beat Dolidze to the punch and become the first fighter to fend him off from distance.
Take: Black-smith
Mayra Bueno Silva (3, P4P-16) vs. Macy Chiasson (8)
Macy Chiasson remains as close as ever to a breakthrough and she has another chance to assert herself as a top contender when she fights Mayra Bueno Silva.
Ready for more story time? Silva’s stock has fluctuated wildly over the past year as she won our hearts by ending Holly Holm’s reign of terror, then erased that result when she took ADHD medication, then ended up getting a shot at the vacant bantamweight title anyway, then put in a totally forgettable performance in a loss to Raquel Pennington. Suffice it to say, she’s not exactly a big favorite here despite the number next to her name.
Chiasson is so impressive at her best and the women’s 135 is so desperate for fresh blood that it’s easy to root for her. However, it’s been disheartening to see her struggle with the ladder and lose fights to the upper echelon of the division, where Silva currently resides. She now has the physical tools and experience to overcome that hurdle. She just has to prove it.
I’ve been fooled by Chiasson before, but I’m going to go out on a limb and predict that UFC 303 will be the start of something big for her. Chiasson wins by decision.
Take: Chiasson
Ian Machado Garry (8) vs Michael Page (T13)
Get ready. This fight could be a draw.
I know it’s cruel, but this match doesn’t seem very exciting to me. Ian Machado Garry and Michael Page are very skilled and used to knockouts, but they are also intelligent and unlikely to force the action if there is any chance it will give their opponent an advantage. Like it or not, this is going to be a chess match.
Who will blink first? I think it’s Page. Young Garry seems to have more pep in his step and if this goes to trial he will be praised for the rare times he steps forward and lets go of his hands. Page has been involved in some tough split decisions in his time so let’s hope that doesn’t happen.
Nothing would be funnier than seeing Page use one of his filming techniques and make Garry a viral adversary, but that’s a lot to ask. So I entered Garry winning a lukewarm three-round fight on the scorecards.
Take: Gary
Preliminaries
Joe Pyfer def. Marc-André Barriault
Cub Swanson defeats Andre Fili
Charles Jourdain def. Jean Silva
Payton Talbott def. Yanis Ghemmouri
Gillian Robertson (13) beats Michelle Waterson-Gomez
Martin Buday def. Andrei Arlovski
Carlos Hernandez def. Rei Tsuruya
Ricky Simon def. Vinicius Oliveira