A customer tries out the Apple Vision Pro headset during the product launch at the Apple Store in New … (+)
After much anticipation and fanfare, Apple unveiled its contribution to the mixed reality headset market in February 2024. Without a doubt, the Vision Pro is a remarkable technological feat. Apple believed that this was the product that would give the company a dominant position in spatial computing, the merging of the physical and digital worlds. However, the market did not embrace the Vision Pro and recent news from Apple suggests that they are reviewing their roadmap. What happened to Apple’s dream of mass adoption of spatial computing and what can we learn from it?
At first the experience is nothing short of wow
Spend 30 minutes at an Apple store demoing Vision Pro and you’ll see what a marvel of computing and engineering it is. Its specifications are extraordinary: two 23 million pixel OLED screens, 12 cameras, five sensors, six microphones and an M2 chip. Phew!
Apple has packed a lot into such a small footprint, and the sensory experience exceeds expectations. For example, in the demo, a user is transported to a rehearsal room with Alicia Keys and her band, and it looks and sounds almost magical. That alone is worth the 30-minute demo.
Using the Vision Pro as a computer allows the user to open multiple virtual screens of their favorite applications. These screens appear suspended in front of the user and each can be easily zoomed in and out. Interaction includes special hand gestures, such as pinching and swiping, and many actions incorporate eye movements.
Interaction with the device is convincing, offers a familiar Apple user interface and the performance of each action feels natural and responsive.
CATANIA, ITALY – JUNE 21: Ophthalmologist Professor Andrea Russo wears the Apple Vision pro during a … (+)
Is there a market for spatial computing today?
Apple had bet that this rich, immersive and virtual experience would represent the next generation of computing platform and that, thanks to its reputation for design and usability, it would quickly establish itself as a leader. Despite a phenomenal track record of product success, Apple missed the mark with this high-profile release. What exactly did they do?
Apple’s Vision Pro wasn’t the first in this category. Not by a long shot. The first head-mounted displays for computing and virtual reality (VR), also known as VR headsets, date back to the 1960s.
More recently, in 2016, Sony launched its PlayStation VR headsets and in 2018, Meta released the Oculus Go. Although largely aimed at the gaming market, Sony and Meta have enjoyed reasonable success, selling 5 million and 20 million units respectively to date. Recently, sales have slowed considerably, with Sony even halting production as current inventories dwindle.
Meta Platforms Inc.’s Oculus Quest 2 virtual reality (VR) headset. Photographer: Zed Jameson/Bloomberg
Microsoft’s foray into virtual reality with its highly touted HoloLens saw limited success in an enterprise context, but ultimately ended its mixed reality efforts in 2023.
Leaders like Sony, Meta and Microsoft, for all their resources and marketing clout, have discovered a truth: the size of the VR headset market, while not insignificant, is narrow and niche.
Did Apple and its offices full of analysts have access to market data that others didn’t?
It seems that Apple was betting that with an innovative product and a much broader set of uses, they could create a mass market for spatial computing. To Apple’s credit, its track record of creating massive market demand has been impressive considering products like the iPod, iPad, and iPhone, which have collectively shipped billions of units.
However, this year, Apple now plans to sell only about 450,000 Vision Pros, a far cry from its first-year goal of 800,000. Compare that to the 73 million Apple iPads sold in their first year.
The most glaring thing on day one was the Vision Pro’s price. Starting at $3,500, that figure eclipsed, say, the Meta headset, which cost around $500. Sure, the features aren’t quite fair, but Apple’s price wasn’t even close.
A small market and high prices weren’t the only obstacles Apple faced.
Innovative technology is not enough to succeed in the market
By offering a wide range of compelling uses, Apple was betting that large numbers of people would adopt spatial computing for their everyday work, learning, and entertainment needs. For this to happen, there needed to be a significant change in behavior. Evidence from other vendors simply didn’t support this and it happened the same way for Apple.
Soon after purchasing and overcoming the novelty factor, many users began thinking about how they could use the device. This was made worse by the lack of Vision Pro specific apps and support. It’s no surprise that Apple has seen a high number of returns and several units have appeared on sites like eBay.
The interest typically generated by a new Apple product also quickly waned. Social media mentions and Google searches dropped sharply in just a few weeks.
Another difficult problem to solve was also the form factor. While wearing a computer headset to play a game or work out for a short time may be acceptable, donning a headset for hours on end to surf the web or watch a movie was unconvincing. Many users reported that the headset didn’t offer a compelling upgrade over their traditional setups.
It also doesn’t help that the Vision Pro is heavy (1.4 pounds). That’s a lot of weight to strap around your head without discomfort for a while. Many people have also reported health problems, including motion sickness, black eyes, headaches, and eye strain from prolonged use. Many of these issues are common complaints about the VR headset modality.
Infographic on augmented reality, mixed reality and virtual reality: user interacting with devices, … (+)
What’s next for spatial computing and Vision Pro?
There’s a lot to like about Apple’s first-generation Vision Pro, and to be fair, it has a lot of enthusiastic users. Anyone using the device for the first time is immediately struck by the fact that this experience feels like a big step forward.
But the disappointing sales results from Apple and other vendors clearly suggest that, in its current form, there is not yet a mass market opportunity for spatial computing.
Cutting-edge technology alone is not enough to succeed in the market.
Reports indicate that while Apple isn’t planning a follow-up to this Vision Pro model, they’re not giving up on spatial computing, and that a less expensive product with fewer features could emerge in a year or two. By then, the market may be ready and the compelling uses more obvious.
For spatial computing to succeed in the mass market, it must solve problems and create experiences in a way that is affordable and with a form factor that is no more intrusive than wearing a pair of ordinary glasses.
The first prize, however, will go to the company that finally creates an immersive experience that does not require any headset.
Holodeck, anyone?