Statistics 2023 (Rank)
Points per game: 22.5 (12th)
Total yards per game: 345.5 (11th)
Pieces played per match: 61.8 (23rd)
Pass attempts + sacks per game: 35.3 (15th)
EPA dropback per game: 0.155 (4th)
Rush attempts per game: 25.8 (22nd)
Rush EPA per game: -0.054 (10th)
management
Green Bay offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich is entering his third season as the team’s offensive coordinator. After finishing 17th in offensive yards in 2022 (Aaron Rodgers’ final season with the Packers), the team gained the 11th-most yards in Jordan Love’s first year as the starter in 2023. They were 12th in points per game thanks to Love’s very efficient play in November and December, and only five teams in the NFL had a better gift differential than Green Bay.
The Packers ranked 10th in passing rate relative to expectations in 2023, proving to be one of the league’s most balanced teams in a neutral-game scenario (when the game was seven points apart one way or the other). Stenavich used three sets of receivers on 49 percent of the team’s dropbacks — the 16th-highest rate. He deployed two sets of tight ends at the third-highest rate in the league.
The Packers under Stenavich have done what good teams do: use the snap motion at a high rate. Last year, only the 49ers, Rams and Dolphins used the snap motion more often than the Packers.
Passing of an infraction
QB: Jordan Love, Sean Clifford
WR: Romeo Doubs, Bo Melton
Editor-in-Chief: Jayden Reed, Malik Heath
Editor-in-Chief: Christian Watson, Dontayvian Wicks
TE: Luke Musgrave, Tucker Kraft
Jordan Love’s full-season numbers were pretty good in 2023, but there were two versions of Love in his first year as Green Bay’s starter: before his breakout performance of 322 yards and two touchdowns in Week 11 against the Chargers, and after.
Through the first ten weeks of the season, Love’s numbers, both traditional and peripheral, have been disappointing. He was 20th in dropback success rate, behind quarterback luminaries like Desmond Ridder and Mac Jones, and 14th in adjusted EPA per attempt, just below Russell Wilson. Love’s adjusted net yards per attempt were abysmal, ranking 26th through the first two months of the season. Only Zach Wilson and Matthew Stafford had lower success rates than the struggling Love.
Love’s Week 11-18 was marked by some astounding statistics. He led all passers in completion rate above expectations; only Dak Prescott had a higher dropback success rate; he was third in adjusted net yards per attempt; and, importantly for fantasy purposes, only four QBs averaged more fantasy points per dropback. With multiple touchdown games in ten of his last 11 outings—including two postseason games—Love was second in a composite stat that factors in a QB’s completion rate above expectations and EPA. Long story short: Love was unquestionably elite over the final two months of the season.
Green Bay coaches, including quarterbacks coach Tom Clements, have attributed Love’s improved decision-making to his strong November and December (and January). Comfort and familiarity with the offense and its wide receivers appear to have played a major role in Love’s progress in diagnosing defenses and making adjustments before the snap. That’s the kind of thing that often sticks with young quarterbacks.
My only qualm with Love is that he relied on big plays. His stellar second half of the season was fueled by long gains on (usually) long passes that may not prove sustainable in 2024 and beyond, as Arif Hasan has said. highlighted in the Wide Left newsletter.
It’s largely been overlooked that Love is working with one of the deepest receiver rooms in the NFL. Watson, Reed and Doubs form arguably a top-six or top-seven trio of receivers, and behind them are Wicks — a highly productive college receiver who proved to be hyper-effective as a rookie — and Melton, who saw just 26 targets in 2023 and led the Packers in yards per carry and receiving success rate.
If you’re a sane human who doesn’t follow the hamstring health of NFL receivers 365 days a year, I have news for you: The perpetually injured Watson has reportedly found the cause of his incessant hamstring issues (asymmetric strides) and has been working diligently with doctors at a special lab in Wisconsin to fix the problem. This may sound funny to you, as it did to me at first, but it’s potentially (very) important for Watson, Love, and the rest of the team’s receivers. A full season for Watson likely means a season of big deep splash plays and peak weeks for the speedy deep-ball specialist. It would also mean fewer looks for Jayden Reed, whose target profile was downright elite with Watson sidelined in 2023.
In 2023, Reed filled what could be called the Deebo Lite role in the Packers’ offense. He had 64 receptions on 94 targets for 793 yards and eight touchdowns while missing one game with an injury. The fact that Reed’s performance was much better with Watson sidelined is, as I mentioned, somewhat concerning for fantasy managers targeting Reed (unless the Packers are a much more pass-oriented team in 2024).
Doubs got away with unsustainable touchdown production in 2023. All six of Doubs’ receptions in the first 10 seconds last season were touchdowns, and seven of his eight red zone receptions were touchdowns. Reed was Love’s primary target in the red zone in 2023, but only just. He had 18 red zone attempts to Reed’s 14. Watson had 13. Doubs will be a somewhat touchdown-dependent fantasy option this season.
Every football hipster’s favorite receiver, Dontayvian Wicks, was impressive in limited usage as a rookie in 2023 but will likely start the season behind Reed, Watson, and Doubs. Wicks would instantly become an interesting fantasy play if any of the team’s starting receivers miss time in 2024. For all the time and effort fantasy managers will put into dissecting Green Bay’s receiver room this summer, none of these guys will dominate targets. It will be a puzzle trying to figure out which Green Bay receiver will function as the team’s WR1 in any given week.
Luke Musgrave, who missed six games with an abdominal injury in 2023, is back at the top of Green Bay’s tight end rankings. That doesn’t mean Tucker Kraft will be a pure backup, though. Kraft was solid in eight starts in 2023, leading all tight ends in yards after a catch and having at least four receptions in five of his final six regular-season games. Kraft could take over as the team’s primary tight end, though he didn’t exactly show a knack for commanding targets last year, seeing a target on 17.4 percent of his pass attempts (Kraft was at 14.2 percent). The Packers’ tight end situation should be closely monitored this summer.
Rush attack
RB: Josh Jacobs, MarShawn Lloyd, AJ Dillon
OL (L to R): Rasheed Walker, Elgton Jenkins, Josh Myers, San Rhyan, Zach Tom
Let’s start with a hard-to-understand truth: Josh Jacobs may be done. Well done, charred. You forgot the burgers were on the grill. That’s the kind of doneness.
Last year, trapped in a dismal Vegas offense, Jacobs was as bad or worse than his Packers teammate AJ Dillon (by many standards, the worst running back in the league). In terms of rushing yards vs. expected, rushing yards after contact, fantasy points vs. expected, and other nerdy metrics, Jacobs was at the bottom of the list in 2023. There is nothing positive to take away from his final season with the Raiders.
It’s not that the Raiders were a particularly bad run-blocking team in 2023. They ranked 13th in PFF’s team run-blocking grade and 12th in yards before contact per carry, in line with the Packers and Colts. Maybe Jacobs’ struggles in 2023 were based on vibes. Former Raiders head coach Josh McDaniels — fired last season — comes with exceptionally bad vibes, after all.
Fortunately for those planning to target Jacobs in fantasy drafts this summer, NFL coaches don’t care about stats. Packers coaches seem enamored with Jacobs’ toughness and experienced leadership. Those things matter far more to coaches than any cheesy statistic. Jacobs could inherit a heavy workload, including critical goal-line opportunities, depending on how comfortable the team is with him as the unquestioned leader. It won’t matter if he’s ineffective. It never matters with running backs.
The Packers’ offensive line was ranked by PFF in 2023 as the league’s tenth-worst run-blocking unit, despite having the fourth-lowest run-blocking rate and tenth-best yards before contact per carry. During Love’s torrid second-half run, Green Bay’s offense was third in rushing EPA and fourth in rushing success rate. The quarterback’s high-level play helped open up the running game, as it often does.
Rookie RB MarShawn Lloyd could be in line for the leadback duties if Jacobs misses time in 2024. It won’t take an injury to Jacobs for Lloyd to get some playing time. Packers coaches have made it clear that the rookie, selected with the 88th pick in the draft, will be used in the backfield alongside Jacobs in some capacity. Packers offensive coordinator Adam Stenavich said this spring that he wants Lloyd on the field “as much as possible.” What that means is anyone’s guess, but it’s not out of the question that Lloyd could take some of Jacobs’ pass-catching duties away from him this season. Lloyd is a must-have for drafters moving away from elite running backs in the early rounds.
Somehow, AJ Dillon is also on Green Bay’s roster.
Total wins
The Packers enter 2024 with a win total of 10.5, according to DraftKings sportsbook. Only the Ravens, Chiefs and Niners have a higher win ratio. That may sound optimistic, but if Love can continue to shred defenses with his precise throws and pre-snap adjustments, I think Green Bay can go well beyond 10.5 wins. I like the Packers’ chances of challenging Dan Campbell’s Lions for NFC North supremacy this season.