The Windup: Four teams about to accept the deadline's fate

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Kick off the Hall of Fame discussion as Jayson Stark weighs in. Plus: Ken talks about the developing seller’s market, the Cardinals and Reds trying to make some noise, and the baseball card of the week. Levi Weaverattached Ken Rosenthal — welcome to The Windup!

Ken’s Notebook: Four Teams About to Accept Deadline Fate

Trade deadline analysis seems to be starting before spring training even ends, so naturally, panic has set in early. Teams are grouped! There won’t be enough sellers! The deadline will be a bust!

Please. The split occurs when teams withdraw from the competition, whether they are willing to admit it or not. Even more sellers will emerge in the nearly four weeks remaining until the deadline, prompting the usual hustle and bustle as the big moment approaches.

For your Friday pleasure, we present four teams with virtually identical records, all of whom entered Thursday with playoff odds of 6% or less. A winning streak for each of these teams remains possible. Extended playoffs allow for hope to be extended. But eventually, for these Futile Four and others, reality will set in:

Cubs (40-48, -26 point differential, six behind in the wild-card race): Raise your hand to anyone who predicted the Cubs would score 10 runs Wednesday in a game started by the Phillies’ Christopher Sanchez. And yes, we all know the Cubs were in great shape this time last year and will be reluctant to give up any runs in Craig Counsell’s first season as manager.

Yet, as The AthleticPatrick Mooney wrote Thursday that Cody Bellinger’s quiet season suggests a trade is inevitable. Bellinger is a potential trade candidate, though his two player options complicate matters. Things would get more interesting if the Cubs release some of their more controllable pieces.

Rangers (39-48, -7 point differential, 8 1/2 behind in the wild-card race): Yes, the reigning World Series champions are on our short list. Their run differential means they should be closer to .500, but their offense has dropped from third in the major leagues in runs per game last season to 17th this season. Since May 1, they are 23-34.

Steve Adams of MLB Trade Rumors points out that with the Rangers $12 million over the first luxury tax threshold, owners may be even more motivated to sell.

The Rangers have starters (Michael Lorenzen, Andrew Heaney) and relievers (Kirby Yates, David Robertson) to offer. Let’s not rule out Max Scherzerwho has a full no-trade clause, but could be attractive with the Mets paying nearly three-quarters of his salary.

Tigers (39-48, -26 point differential, 8 1/2 behind in the wild-card race): Nothing surprising here. They’ve been trending in that direction all season, especially with three other American League Central clubs — the Guardians, Twins and Royals — emerging as contenders.

Perhaps it’s time for the Tigers to get creative in their search for offense. trade Tarik Skubal creative, but something a little more imaginative than simply parting ways with potential free agents such as Jack Flaherty, Mark Canha and Gio Urshela.

Blue Jays (39-48, -61 point differential, 8 1/2 behind in the wild-card race): Ah, my dear paper tigers. Would you believe that their run differential is the fourth worst in the American League, ahead of only the Angels, Athletics and White Sox?

I wrote a column last week assessing the Jays’ options. Shame on them if they only trade their potential free agents and get back to normal in 2025.

Future Hall of Famers: Who’s on Track for Cooperstown?

On July 21, Adrián Beltré, Todd Helton, Jim Leyland and Joe Mauer will be inducted into the Baseball Hall of Fame.

Half the fun of the Hall of Fame is the discussion of “who’s in, who’s out?” A subtopic: Which active players are currently set to join them?

Today, for the second year in a row, Jayson Stark took on the role of curator of this discussion, dividing the candidates into several (very specific!) categories. On his list, there were three players whose candidacies I found particularly interesting:

Aaron Judge (Level: “The Gang “Through the 50s””)

Jayson starts with a fact that surprised him, so I’m not too ashamed that I didn’t realize it either: The judge doesn’t even have 1,000 hits yet! But just about every other aspect of Judge’s career suggests he’ll be there — his career OPS is just under 1.000, plus he has two home run titles and an MVP (and could add to each of those categories this year).

The problem with Judge is that his breakthrough season didn’t come until he was 25, which puts him a few years behind guys like Ken Griffey Jr. or Hank Aaron, who started really putting up stats in their early 20s.

Here, I think, in a nutshell, is the Judge’s Hall of Fame case (from Baseball Reference):

Judge: 47.4 career WAR, 46.5 WAR, 7-year peak, 47.0 JAWS, 8.3 WAR/162
HOF RF Average: 71.1 career WAR, 42.4 career WAR over 7 years, 56.7 JAWS, 5.1 WAR/162

He had a better seven-year peak than the average HOF right fielder, and a significantly higher WAR per 162 games. At 32, he just needs to spend the second half of his 30s hitting like… well, kind of like Aaron Judge.

Nolan Arenado And Paul Goldschmidt (Level: “The “red zone” club”)

There is a phrase from David Bazan that I love: “Holy or unholy spirit / well now I can’t tell, but either way you cut it / You should take some distance if you are considering taking a stand..“

That’s how I feel about the Cardinals’ two highest-paid players, both of whom are having the worst years of their careers in terms of OPS (Arenado at .677 and Goldschmidt at .663). It’s also happening in a season where the Cardinals could really use something better (more on that later).

But take some distanceand you remember how good these guys were in their prime. Ten straight Gold Gloves for Arenado. Goldschmidt has 351 career home runs and a higher bWAR than Todd Helton.

I think Jayson is right that neither is a certainty yet. But they’re both close enough that another good season or two could push them over the line.

For Jayson’s thoughts on these three players – and 43 other active players – click here.

NL Central Race: Are the Cardinals or Reds good?

So the Reds swept the Yankees in New York and the Cardinals are in playoff position. Could we see three National League Central teams make the playoffs?

It might come as a surprise that There was only one month this year where the Cardinals had a losing record.. It was in March (1-3). Since then:

April: 13-13
May: 13-12
June: 16-12
July so far: 2-1

And yet, it took them until June 17 to spend their second day of the year above .500. They are now 45-41, and fans are filling Katie Woo’s mailbags with questions about who the team could add at the deadline.

Some of their needs will be met internally, but while they could use a left-handed pitcher, their “Dad Strength” rotation has worked as well as anyone could have hoped.

Age	Save	TIME	Intellectual property
36	6-3	3.88	92 2/3
34	9-5	2.98	87 2/3
37	4-3	3.59	87 2/3
35	6-7	5.32	94 2/3

Card Rotation

Player Age Save TIME Intellectual property

36

6-3

3.88

92 2/3

34

9-5

2.98

87 2/3

37

4-3

3.59

87 2/3

35

6-7

5.32

94 2/3

They’re a half-game behind the Padres for the second wild-card spot. Four teams back in the standings — just 3 1/2 games behind — lurks Cincinnati, whose three-game winning streak is the longest current winning streak in the National League. (They should get a bonus win for that.)

The Reds (42-45) certainly still have work to do. C. Trent Rosecrans tells us more here about the importance of the next 10 games as they try to separate themselves from the rest of the potential contenders in the lukewarm NL.

Baseball Card of the Week: Robb Nen, the Best Classic Baseball Card of 1992

From 1994 to 2002, Robb Nen recorded 314 saves and a 2.66 ERA, in years when the league average was between 4.80 and 5.10 (this year, it’s 4.02). As a kid, I wondered how Texas could have traded Nen and fellow reliever Kurt Miller to the Marlins for the good but unremarkable Cris Carpenter.

Those stats (plus his 6.35 ERA with 26 walks and 12 strikeouts for Texas in 1993) help make it more logical. (The Marlins had no such excuse when they traded him for virtually nothing after the 1997 season.)

His career ended after the 2002 World Series, when he pitched with a torn rotator cuff.

Handshakes and high fives

While we were on vacation for Independence Day, the league announced the starters for the All-Star GameSome links:

Atlanta Starter Max Fried had a rough start to the season. Coaching from veterans Chris Sale and Charlie Morton helped him regain his All-Star form.

Let’s not forget the giantsWith a series win over Atlanta (and injured pitchers set to return), there is reason for optimism.

THE Astros are 8-2 in their last 10 games. Even without Kyle Tucker, their offense is in great shape.

With Royce Lewis back on the IL (this time it’s a right adductor strain), the Twins called prospect Brooks Lee.

THE Yankees demoted Anthony Volpe from the top spot. Chris Kirschner doesn’t take credit for it, but…