It’s July, and that can only mean one thing: It’s time to mindlessly speculate about the July 30 trade deadline. With that in mind, this week’s and next week’s Prospect Watch will deviate from the norm. Rather than highlighting one player per team, we’re focusing on five position groups in each league that could become relevant this trade season.
Our reasoning is simple: teams tend to be more willing to move a player when they are dealing with organizational strength; this is not the case. always It is, mind you, but we find this exercise is generally useful as we approach the crazy season that is the trade deadline.
As always, it’s more art than science.
1. Orioles positional players
Bear with us, because this is familiar territory for returning readers: The Orioles have more talented young hitters than they have at-bats to offer them at the major league level. That doesn’t mean they should trade. everyone at or above Double-A, but that means they should be willing to part with a few members of their hitting surplus to improve their World Series chances. (We have and will continue to give the Orioles credit for trading infielder Joey Ortiz as part of the Corbin Burnes spring deal.)
We recently explained why we doubt infielder Jackson Holliday is close to being signed. We suppose it’s possible Baltimore could consider trading Coby Mayo or Samuel Basallo — two potential middle-of-the-road hitters with defensive questions — but for now, let’s assume they’re also tied to the Orioles’ long-term plans. It’s a testament to the O’s depth that these exceptions — among the top three players in the system — don’t leave them without a number of compelling trade candidates.
Indeed, we’ll single out four players in particular here: outfielders Enrique Bradfield Jr., Jud Fabian and Dylan Beavers, as well as infielder Connor Norby. They’re all top-100 picks since 2021 and have achieved at least some level of success at High-A or above. (Norby made his MLB debut earlier this season.) There are reasons to be wary of each of them — Bradfield’s bat could play below average due to his lack of punch; Fabian and Beavers have below-average hitting-tool projections; and Norby might not stick to the dirt — but it’s so difficult to acquire near-ready positional help down the middle that we think more than one club would be willing to land a member (or two) of the quartet in a deal at the deadline this month.
The Orioles, for their part, shouldn’t miss any of the players mentioned above given all the other talented young hitters who are in the major league lineup or about to join it.
2. Young Yankees players, infielders
Normally, we would have highlighted the Yankees’ trio of outfielders Spencer Jones, Jasson Dominguez and Everson Pereira. Alas, Dominguez and Pereira are injured, and Jones was ruled out of the game during negotiations with the White Sox over Dylan Cease. (Time may prove that decision is the right one; for now, though, don’t look directly at Jones in Double-A with his strikeout rate.) The Yankees may have to turn to their collection of young arms and infielders.
On the pitching side, some names to know include Henry Lalane, Chalniel Arias (both currently sidelined with injury); Carlos Lagrange; and Sabier Marte. You probably know a few of them from their residual hype from the spring. We know, we know; trading low-level pitchers is a delicate dance. While you never want to trade a pitcher who becomes a No. 2 or 3 starter for a rental, you have to be sober about it. Probability analysis suggests that any young pitcher is a candidate for attrition—it could be due to injury; lack of development; or any number of other Oregon Trail-type maladies. Sometimes, you just have to play with the odds.
As for infielders, the Yankees may want to keep Roderick Arias and George Lombard Jr., but they might be more open to parting ways with someone like Jared Serna, Roc Riggio or Enmanuel Tejeda.
Think of it this way: By the time some of these players establish themselves at the major league level (if they’re lucky enough to do so), Juan Soto could be a third of the way through his next contract.
The Guardians have had more infielders than vacancies for some time now. José Ramírez and Andrés Giménez are under long-term contracts, and the Guardians continue to give Tyler Freeman (now a center fielder), Brayan Rocchio and Gabriel Arias opportunities to establish themselves at the highest level of the game.
Beyond those five players, the Guardians still have a number of other top-tier infielders they could move for immediate help elsewhere. That collection includes José Tena, Juan Brito, Angel Martínez, Nate Furman and Kahlil Watson, a former first-round pick they got in the Josh Bell trade at the deadline. (That deal, if you recall, also netted them Jean Segura.)
At some point, the Guardians must decide who of this group they believe in the most – and, ideally, make some moves on the others before they lose their value.
The Mariners have quietly done a good job of assembling a lot of talented young players, including catcher Harry Ford, infielders Colt Emerson and Cole Young, and outfielders Lazaro Montes and Jonny Farmelo. (Teenage shortstop Felnin Celesten also boosted his stock by tearing up the complex circuit.)
Jerry Dipoto has already shown he’s willing to make a bold move at the trade deadline — recall Luis Castillo’s deal, which cost him infielders Edwin Arroyo and Noelvi Marte. Perhaps Dipoto will find a similar blockbuster to his liking this summer.
Beyond that, it seems more likely that the Mariners will bait their hook with position players from the next tier or two down. We’re thinking Jonatan Clase, Michael Arroyo, Ben Williamson and/or Tai Peete. As with some of the other teams in this article, you simply can’t keep everyone.
5. Twin pitchers
The Twins’ surprisingly loaded infield depth chart could lead to inquiries about former first-round pick Brooks Lee. Unless they have a lot more confidence in Willi Castro and Jose Miranda — or the health of Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis — than we think, we think they’re more likely to deal their stable of Double-A starters.
Zebby Matthews, Marco Raya, Andrew Morris, Cory Lewis or Travis Adams are unlikely to become first-line starters. They are all interesting in one way or another, to the point that other clubs could take inspiration from them.
We’ll add that Raya and Adams are both Rule 5 eligible this winter; that doesn’t necessarily mean the Twins will be more aggressive in their pursuit, but in general, teams are more likely to part with prospects on the bubble.